基于云模型的海上船舶溢油应急管理能力评估方法

为更好地解决海上船舶溢油应急管理能力评估过程中的不确定性问题，提出1种基于区间二型模糊层次分析法的云模型综合评估方法。针对评估体系的局部性，借鉴PPRR应急管理过程理论，对影响船舶溢油应急管理能力的因素进行分级和分类，构建全局评估指标体系；分别运用区间二型模糊层次分析法和逆向云发生器确定各指标权重和云模型参数；通过浮动云和综合云算法获得最终评估结果。结果表明:将5个评估等级和评估结果进行仿真得出评估云的“云滴”图可显示出评估结果的能力等级以及评估结果的可信度和稳定性。计算某海区船舶溢油应急管理能力的评估等级为“较好”，即管辖该海区的海事管理部门能较好地解决海上船舶溢油突发事故，验证了所提方法的可行性和有效性。

Assessment method for emergency management capability of marine ship-source oil spill based on cloud model

To better solve the problem of uncertainty in the assessment process for the emergency management capability of marine ship-source oil spill,a comprehensive assessment method based on the cloud model combined with the interval 2-type fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(IT2FAHP)was proposed.Aiming at the locality of the assessment system,referring to the PPRR emergency management process theory,the factors affecting the emergency management ability of ship-source oil spill were graded and classified for establishing the global assessment index system.The weights of each index and the parameters of cloud model were determined by IT2FAHP and backward cloud generator,respectively.The floating cloud and the integrated cloud algorithm were applied for gaining the final assessment results.It showed that when simulating and showing five assessment grades and assessment results,the grade of assessment results was obtained from the“cloud droplets”graph of assessment cloud,as well as the reliability and stability of assessment results.The modeling analysis was carried out by taking the emergency management of ship-source oil spill in a certain sea area as an example,and the assessment grade was“better”,which showed that the maritime administration department in charge of this sea area could better solve the emergency accidents of ship-source oil spill,so the feasibility and validity of the proposed method were verified.