基于风险修正的城市安全风险评估方法及应用*

为推动实现城市安全风险的系统化、信息化管理，基于我国城市安全风险管理的要求与特点，总结城市安全风险评估的分层分类原则、突出固有风险原则和合理修正原则等基本原则；提出“点位-行业-区域”逐层展开的城市安全风险评估程序，明确各层级的评估要点；提出城市安全风险评估方法，分别制定点位、行业风险修正规则，结合风险参数与情景构建开展基于风险矩阵法的点位风险评估和行业风险评估，采用加权计算法由行业风险评估结果叠加评估区域风险。结果表明:该方法能够从不同角度有效评估城市的风险状态，为不同层级的城市安全管理者明确风险管控重点提供决策依据。

Research and application of urban safety risk assessment method based on risk correction

To promote the systematic and information based management of urban safety risk,the basic principles of urban safety risk assessment were proposed based on the requirements and characteristics of urban safety risk management in China,which included the principle of hierarchical classification,the principle of highlighting inherent risk,and the principle of correcting reasonably.The procedure of urban safety risk assessment with the “point industry region” level wise development was proposed,and the main points of risk assessment in each level were clarified.The methods of urban safety risk assessment were put forward,and the risk correction rules for the point and industry were formulated respectively.The point risk assessment and industry risk assessment based on the risk matrix method were conducted combining with the risk parameters and scenario construction,and the region risk was assessed with the superposition of industry risk assessment results by using the weighted calculation method.The results showed that this method could effectively assess the urban risk status from different perspectives,and provide decision making basis for the urban safety managers at different levels to clarify the key points of risk management.