基于改进CM的尾矿坝体变形4级预警阈值确定方法*

为改善我国尾矿库在线监测系统由于重建设、轻利用而导致的事故预警能力被制约的现状，以尾矿坝体变形速率监测指标为研究对象，通过引入改进云模型，根据3E规则确定尾矿坝变形监测的正常运营值边界，建立尾矿库坝体变形速率4级预警阈值确定模型，以湖北省某尾矿库为例进行实例分析。结果表明:通过提出的坝体预警阈值确定方法，可得出尾矿库坝体变形速率黄、橙、红各级预警阀值分别为10.842，16.68，25.02 mm/d；进一步与典型小概率法计算结果对比表明，所提出的尾矿坝变形速率4级预警阈值确定方法更加科学合理，可用于尾矿库重要安全监测指标预警值的确定。

Determination method of four level early warning thresholds for tailings dam deformation based on improved CM

In order to improve the current situation that the accident early warning ability of the on line monitoring system in the tailings ponds of China is restricted，which is the result of people values construction while discounts utilization,taking the monitoring index for the deformation rate of tailings dam as the research object,the improved cloud model (CM) was introduced,then the normal operation value boundary for the deformation monitoring of tailings dam was determine according to 3E rules,and a determination model of four level early warning thresholds for the deformation rate of tailings dam was established.Taking a tailing pond in Hubei Province as an example,the results showed that through using the determination method of dam early warning threshold proposed in this paper,the early warning thresholds of yellow level,orange level and red level for the deformation rate of tailings dam was 10.842 mm/d,16.68 mm/d and 25.02 mm/d,respectively.Furthermore,compared with the results of typical small probability method,it showed that the determination method proposed in this paper was more scientific and reasonable,and can be used to determine the early warning values for the important safety monitoring indexes of tailings dam.