基于STAMP模型的建筑事故致因因素定量分析方法研究

为揭示建筑安全事故致因因素间的相互关系从而对其进行有效预防和控制，探讨1种STAMP模型的定量分析方法，用于深入剖析事故致因因素间的逻辑关系和属性特征。基于STAMP系统事故理论模型，从建筑工程安全控制结构入手逐层定性分析事故的致因因素；引入灰色DEMATEL与ISM相结合的方法对系统事故间的复杂逻辑关系进行层级划分；运用MICMAC分析计算各致因因素的驱动力和依赖度数值并判断其属性类别。结果表明:提出的定量分析方法运用到江西丰城冷却塔坍塌事故中的分析结果与事故调查报告相契合，能较全面地说明各层次结构间的相互作用。

Research on quantitative analysis method for causal factors of construction accidents based on STAMP model

In order to reveal the interrelationship between the casual factors of construction safety accidents,and thus prevent and control them effectively,a new quantitative analysis method of STAMP model was discussed,which was used to deeply analyze the logical relationship and attribute characteristics of the casual factors of accidents.Based on the STAMP system accident theoretical model,the causal factors of the accidents were analyzed qualitatively layer by layer starting from the safety control structure of construction engineering.The combination of grey DEMATEL and ISM was introduced to classify the levels of complex logical relationship between the system accidents.The MICMAC analysis was used to calculate the driving force and dependency values of each causal factor and determine the attribute categories.The results showed that the analysis results of the collapse accident of cooling tower in Fengcheng,Jiangxi Province by using the proposed quantitative analysis method were consistent with the accident investigation report,and it can fully explain the interaction between various layer structure.