季节调整分析在城市火灾发生规律研究中的应用

利用样本周期图法定量分析了城市火灾序列的周期性,并实例分析得出了北京市火灾时间序列具有12个月和48个月的周期性。然后采用季节调整法,将火灾时间序列中的季节因子和不规则因子提取出来,得出了经季节调整后的时间序列,从而得到了北京市火灾发生受季节因素影响的大小和城市火灾时间序列的基本发展趋势,大大提高了火灾数据之间的可比性。同时结论可为消防管理部门有针对性地采取消防监督管理措施和科学地安排消防执勤战备提供有力指导。

Application of seasonal adjustment in the study of urban fire risk

This paper quantitatively analyses the periodicity of the urban fire time series by using the sample periodogram method, and the case study indicates that fire time series in Beijing have periodicities of 12 months and 48 months. The seasonal factors and irregular factors are then extracted from the fire time series by using the seasonal adjustment methods, whereby the new adjusted time series is obtained. Further, the influence of seasonal factors on fire occurrences in Beijing and the basic trends of urban fire risk are obtained. The results improve the comparability of fire data remarkably.