气象灾害对天水苹果生产影响的评估技术研究

分析得出影响天水苹果正常生长的主要农业气象灾害是前秋9月大气干旱、冬季12-2月暖冬高温、苹果花期4月下旬高温干旱和春季4月下旬低温危害。各灾害发生频率在53﹪～70﹪之间，以前秋9月干旱最多，春季4月下旬低温危害最少；前秋9月大气干旱以中-大灾为主；其他灾害均以轻、中灾最多，大灾居次；各种灾害因子重灾年份最少，仅在6﹪～15﹪之间。农业气象灾害综合评估除轻灾评估准确率略低为89﹪外，中-重灾评估准确率均达100﹪，灾害评估效果比较理想，对农业防灾减灾有一定的指导意义

A Study on Assessment Technology of Meteorological Disaster for Apple Growth in Tianshui

To analyze the agro-meteorological disaster during the apple's growth period,meteorological and agriculture data had been used.The result showed that the drought in September before the year,high temperature in February,high temperature and drought in the last ten days and low temperature in the last ten days in April were prominent disasters for apple growth.The occurrence frequency of disasters is 60% to 70%,in which drought in September before the year is most frequent and low temperature in the last ten...