地铁施工引起地表沉降的Logistic模型预测及应用

目前,中国城市地下铁道建设方兴未艾,地铁施工对周边环境的影响不容忽视,而地铁施工诱发地表沉降预测与控制是亟待深入研讨的重要课题。针对地下铁道施工诱发地表变形的特征和规律,提出了应用Logistic模型进行模拟和预测的思想,详细阐述了Logistic模型的建立、参数估计、应用框架及其检验方法。结合北京地铁10号线呼家楼车站西南迂回风道拱顶处和设备通道施工引起地表竖直方向沉降的实测值,应用Logistic模型进行模拟和理论预测以及模型检验。Logistic模型预测法原理简单,计算容易,通过与施工中的实际测量值对比,证实Logistic模型预测法合理性和应用价值。最后提出了Logistic模型预测及应用的进一步深化研究方向。

Application of Logistic Model in Prediction of Ground Sedimentation Caused by Subway Construction

Construction of subway in China is in the ascendant, the impact on its surroundings can not be ignored. The prediction and control of ground sedimentation caused by subway construe-tim are important topics need to be studied in depth. Referring to the characteristics and the rule of sediment.tim, Lcgistic model is adopted. The process of modeling for Logistic model from its establishment to verification, is described in detail, and verified with the on-site measured data from Hujialou station of # 10 line of Beijing subway. The results prove that the model is brief in principle and easy-to-calculate, and rational and the applicable in prediction. The issues need to be further studied are pointed out.