| 等维灰数递补动态模型对四川境外客源市场的预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 卫海燕,杨芳,张琴英. 等维灰数递补动态模型对四川境外客源市场的预测[J]. 资源开发与市场, 2007, 23(6): 486-489 |
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| 作者姓名： | 卫海燕 杨芳 张琴英 |
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| 作者单位： | 陕西师范大学,旅游与环境学院,陕西,西安,710062 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;国家社会科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对四川省1997-2005年境外游客数量的分析，发现除个别年份以外，整个时间序列总体呈增长趋势。根据客流量与时间的关系：利用动态灰色预测理论建立了四川省境外客源市场的等维灰数递补动态预测模型。经过检验，该模型既与实际客流量相吻合，又能精确地给出短期甚至中期的预报结果。通过对未来几年客流量进行预测，并据此提出相应的建议，提供给有关管理和决策部门参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 境外游客 GM(1,1)模型 等维灰数递补 动态预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-8141(2007)06-0486-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-04-22 |
A Dynamic Prediction Model for Analyzing Market of Overseas Tourists in Sichuan Province |
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| WEI Hai-yan,YANG Fang,ZHANG Qin-ying. A Dynamic Prediction Model for Analyzing Market of Overseas Tourists in Sichuan Province[J]. Resource Development & Market, 2007, 23(6): 486-489 |
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| Authors: | WEI Hai-yan YANG Fang ZHANG Qin-ying |
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| Abstract: | For analyzing the market of overseas tourists in Sichuan Province,a dynamic grey prediction model known as GM(1,1) model was tabled by applying theory of grey system.Starting from analyzing the amount of overseas tourist in the Sichuan Province,this research model was tabled in the light of the relation between tourist flow and time.The model tallied with the actual tourist flow;it was used for predicting tourist flow in the coming years,and gave some suggestions on these grounds. |
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| Keywords: | overseas tourists GM(1 1) model gray system trend prediction |
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