含菌气溶胶扩散对人群的潜在影响风险

为分析生物气溶胶释放对人群潜在影响风险的情况，利用CALPUFF模型定量模拟了2019年7月24~8月20日中牧兰州生物药厂含菌气溶胶扩散、浓度空间分布、对人群潜在健康风险，并结合公开报道的检测数据开展验证.结果显示：生物药厂的含菌气溶胶排放源附近高值区主要集中于厂区四周，影响范围主要以厂区为中心，并向四周逐渐扩散；检测结果中兰州兽研所1#，兰州大学2#地区健康风险比例41.49：1，在模拟的相对风险大小的误差区间（36.15±8.48）范围内，说明本研究含菌气溶胶对人群潜在影响风险的模拟结果可信.

The potential impact of bioaerosol emissions on human health threats

The aim of the study is to analyse the potential impact of bioaerosol emissions on health threats. In particular, CALPUFF model was employed to quantitatively simulate the diffusion of bioaerosol emissions from the Lanzhou Zhongmu Bio-pharmaceutical Factory during July 24-August 20, 2019. Based on the simulated spatial distribution of the bioaerosol, the potential impact on human health was explored. The reliability of our results was validated by compared to public reported detection data. The spatial distribution of bioaerosol emission impact was highly intensive at the Lanzhou Zhongmu Bio-pharmaceutical Factory, and exhibited downtrend around the factory. The health risk ratio of Lanzhou Institute of Veterinary Research 1# and Lanzhou University 2# was 41.49:1, and was within the error interval of relative health risk (i.e., 36.15±8.48), which therefore verify the reliability of our estimates.