中国农业生态效率测度与驱动因素

为适应我国进入高质量发展阶段，实现农业资源的高效率利用，本文以中国30个省、直辖市、自治区（不包括西藏、香港、澳门和台湾）的2003~2017年度面板数据，运用考虑生态非期望产出和期望产出两阶段网络EBM模型，构建资源环境投入—环境治理两阶段模型，测度各省（直辖市、自治区）的农业生态效率，并结合Malmquist指数进行动态分析.以测度的农业生态效率为被解释变量，在考虑农业劳动力素质的门限效应下对其驱动因素进行分析.结果显示：2007年以前中国各地区农业生态效率，呈西部到东部逐渐收敛趋势.2007年以后，呈东西部高，中部塌陷，东西部与中部地区发展失衡.农业劳动力素质存在门限效应，门限值为1012.62.当门限变量值≥1012.62时，农作物种植结构对农业生态效率的影响存在促进作用；反之，则有抑制作用.财政支农水平对提高农业生态效率有正向影响，农用机械投入强度、农业生态环境防护投资额对提高农业生态效率有负面影响.

Chinese agricultural eco-efficiency measurement and driving factors

In order to adapt to the high-quality development stage of our country and realize the efficient use of agricultural resources, the 2003~2017 annual panel data from 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan), and a two-stage network EBM model that considered ecological undesired outputs and expected outputs were used to establish a two-stage model of resources and environment input and environment management which can measure agricultural ecological efficiency and combined with Malmquist index for dynamic analysis. Making the measured agro-ecological efficiency as the explained variable, the driving factors were analyzed by taking the threshold effect of the quality of the agricultural labor force into consideration. The results indicated that before 2007, the agricultural ecological efficiency in various regions of China showed a trend of gradually converging from the west to the east. After 2007, the eastern and western regions were high, while the central region collapsed, and the development between the east and west and central regions was unbalanced. There was a threshold effect on the quality of agricultural labor, and the threshold was 1012.62. When the threshold variable was more than or equal to 1012.62, the influence of crop planting structure on agricultural ecological efficiency was promoted; on the contrary, it has an inhibitory effect. The level of financial support for agriculture had a positive impact on improving agricultural ecological efficiency. The intensity of agricultural machinery investment and the amount of investment in agricultural ecological environment protection have a negative impact on improving agricultural ecological efficiency.