中国PM2.5污染健康效应的国民经济影响分析

为合理评估PM_2.5污染，通过Meta分析，系统回顾已有文献并对中国人群的PM_2.5健康效应进行定量评估.在此基础上，综合运用Benmap模型和CGE模型，估计2017年全国PM_2.5污染造成的国民经济影响.结果表明，中国PM_2.5污染造成的全因早逝、慢性阻塞性肺病（住院）、脑卒中（住院）、缺血性心脏病（住院）、心血管疾病（门诊）、呼吸系统疾病（门诊）OR值分别为1.007（95% CI：1.005，1.009）、1.014（95% CI：1.009，1.019）、1.006（95% CI：1.002，1.011）、1.007（95% CI：1.005，1.010）、1.006（95% CI：1.002，1.010）、1.006（95% CI：1.004，1.008）（per 10μg/m³）.2017年，PM_2.5污染引起的中国年均劳动损失为2590.34万d，居民额外医疗支出为86.39亿元，造成的经济损失约占当年GDP的1.48%.

Analysis on the national economic impact of PM2.5-induced health effects in China

In order to reasonably assess PM_2.5 pollution, this paper systematically reviewed the existing literature and conducted quantitative reviews on adverse health effects of PM_2.5 in China through Meta-analysis. After that, Benmap model and CGE model were comprehensively applied to estimate the national economic impact caused by PM_2.5 pollution in 2017. The simulation results show that, The overall risk estimates of total non-accidental mortality, hospital admissions due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, stroke, ischemic heart disease, outpatient visits due to respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease were1.007 (95%CI:1.005, 1.009), 1.014 (95%CI:1.009, 1.019), 1.006 (95%CI:1.005, 1.010), 1.006 (95%CI:1.005, 1.010), 1.006 (95%CI:1.002, 1.010), 1.006 (95%CI:1.002, 1.010), and 1.006 (95%CI:1.006, 1.010), respectively CI:1.004, 1.008) for each 10μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5. In 2017, PM_2.5 pollution lead to annual work loss hour of 25.9034 million days and additional health expenditure of 8.639 billion Yuan, which combined caused GDP loss of 1.48%.