基于最大熵模型的福建省红树林潜在适生区评估

本研究利用生物气候、地形、底质类型、海温等环境因子和红树林分布数据建立了福建省红树林分布模型，基于最大熵方法分析了福建省沿岸红树林潜在适生区的空间分布.根据模型输出结果对福建省红树林的生境适宜性进行了评估，识别了影响红树林分布的关键环境因子及其适生值区间，并通过空间叠加分析获取了福建省红树林保护与修复的优先区与空缺区域.结果表明，影响福建省红树林适生区分布格局的主要环境因子包括海表温度、气温和降水等，福建省红树林潜在适生区主要位于沙埕港-三沙湾-兴化湾沿岸、泉州湾-厦门湾-九龙江口沿岸、漳江口-东山湾沿岸等地，其中最优适生区面积约为91km².全省共识别出8处红树林保护与修复的优先区域，现存红树林保护率约为64.4%，保护修复空缺主要出现在沙埕港、三沙湾、罗源湾、福清湾等处，研究结论可为未来福建省红树林保护和修复行动提供科学参考.

Assessing the potential distributions of mangrove forests in Fujian Province using MaxEnt model

With the current mangrove forest distribution data, a mangrove distribution model was built for Fujian Province using environmental factors including bioclimate, topography, substrate type, and sea surface temperature. The model was based on the maximum-entropy approach, which calculated a probability distribution for mangrove in the coastal Fujian. Using the model outputs, mangrove habitat suitability in Fujian Province were analyzed. Moreover, the key environmental factors affecting the mangrove distribution and their suitable regions were identified. Spatial overlay analysis was applied to obtain the priority areas and to identify gaps of mangrove conservation and restoration. The results showed that the main factors affecting the mangrove suitable habitats distribution in the coastal Fujian included sea surface temperature, atmospheric temperature, and precipitation. The potential suitable habitats were mainly located in the vicinity of Shacheng Port, Sansha Bay and Xinghua Bay, Quanzhou Bay, Xiamen Bay, Jilongjiang Estuary, Zhangjiang Estuary, and Dongshan Bay. The predicted most suitable area was about 91km². A total of 8 priority areas for mangrove conservation and restoration were identified throughout the province with the protection rate of 64.4%, among which Shacheng Port, Sansha Bay, Luoyuan Bay, and Fuqing Bay were identified as gap areas. The study provided scientific knowledge and reference for future mangrove conservation and restoration actions in Fujian Province.