气候变化对文冠果适宜生境及空间迁移的影响

以文冠果当前地理分布数据为基础，采用物种分布模型（SDM）预测未来气候变化条件下的物种适宜生境及其空间迁移趋势，进而识别可能引起迁移的气候异常因子.结果表明：在当前气候条件下，文冠果适宜生境集中于甘肃东部、宁夏南部、陕西中北部、山西中部及南部，以及青海东部边缘、内蒙-陕西边界区域、河南北部和河北西北部边缘等地区；在气候变化条件下，文冠果适宜生境呈现出整体分布格局基本不变的基础上高适宜生境略有缩减且向东迁移的趋势，不同气候变化情景下的生境丧失率为3.73%~16.6%；在未来极端气候变化情景下，文冠果空间迁移格局绝大部分适宜生境仍为恒有稳定区，迁出丧失区主要集中在适宜生境的西北部和东南部且呈连续分布，迁入新增区仅零散分布于适宜生境的边缘地带，包括内蒙与陕西交界处、山西北部等地；采用多元环境相似度面（MESS）和最不相似变量（MOD）空间分析识别出气候异常区主要位于当前适宜生境的南北边缘，与空间迁移格局相一致.可能引起空间迁移的气候异常因子主要为年平均温度、降水量变异系数和年均降水量.空间迁移区域作为气候变化的高敏感区应予以重视，同时应针对不同的空间迁移区域制定合理有效的资源利用和土地管理策略.

Impacts of climate change on the suitable habitats and spatial migration of Xanthoceras sorbifolia

Based on the current geographical distribution data of Xanthoceras sorbifolia, we used species distribution modeling (SDM) to predict suitable habitats and spatial migration trends under the future climate scenarios, and identify climatic factors that may cause migration. Under the current climatic conditions, the suitable habitats of Xanthoceras sorbifolia were concentrated in the eastern Gansu, southern Ningxia, north-central Shaanxi, central and southern Shanxi, as well as the eastern edge of Qinghai, the border region of Inner Mongolia-Shaanxi, northern edge of Henan and northwest edge of Hebei. Under the future conditions of climate change, the suitable habitats will remain unchanged, however the highly suitable habitats will trend to decrease and eastward slightly, and the habitat loss rates are 3.73%~16.6% under different climate change scenarios. Under the extreme climate change scenarios, spatial migration patterns of Xanthoceras sorbifolia showed that the most suitable habitats were still persist area, in addition, the emigrant areas were mainly concentrated in the northwest and southeast of suitable habitats and present continuous distribution, while immigrant areas were only scattered in the marginal areas of suitable habitats, including the junction of Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, northern Shanxi and other regions. Finally, based on the spatial analysis of the multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS) and the most dissimilar variable (MoD), it was identified that the areas of climate anomaly were mainly located at the northern and southern edge of the currently habitats, which was consistent with the spatial migration patterns. The factors of main climate anomalies which may cause spatial migration were annual average temperature, seasonal precipitation and annual precipitation. The spatial migration areas considered as highly sensitive regions of climate change should be paid more attention. At the same time, reasonable and effective resource utilization and land management strategies should be developed for different spatial migration areas.