云南气候变化高分辨率模拟与RCP4.5情景预估

利用高分辨率区域气候模式CCLM（COSMO Model in Climate Mode）对云南省气温和降水的模拟资料，采用多种评价指标，对比分析了试验期（1961~2005年）的模拟结果与同期25个气象站的观测值，并对RCP45情景下的近期（2030~2040年）气温可能变化趋势进行了预估。结果表明：（1）CCLM区域气候模式能够较好地模拟云南省气温的演变趋势，而对降水的模拟能力相对较弱；（2）RCP45情景下，年平均气温（T）、最高气温（Tmax）和最低气温（Tmin）将呈现一致上升趋势，2030~2040年比基准期1986~2005年上升幅度均为12℃；（3）2030~2040年，云南省暖事件发生的可能性将增加，冷事件可能有所减少

SIMULATION OF CLIMATIC CHANGE IN YUNNAN PROVINCE AND RCP4.5 SCENARIO PROJECTED TREND BY CCLM

This study presents a detailed analysis of observed and simulated precipitation and temperature in Yunnan Province using simulated output from the regional climate model COSMO CLM (CCLM) covering the period of 1961-2005 and projected output for years of 2006-2040 under RCP4.5 scenario. Three conclusions could be obtained in this research. Firstly, compared with observational records, CCLM appeared to have a good performance on simulation of mean temperature (T), maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) with correlation coefficients of 0.58, 0.41, 0.61, temporally, and 0.95,0.93,0.95, spatially (significant at 0.05 level). However, CCLM failed to capture the characteristics and variation of precipitation in Yunnan Province. The bias between the simulated and observed series reached 311.77 mm and their correlation coefficient were -0.18 during 1961-2005. Secondly, T, Tmax, Tmin would show consistently increasing trend over Yunnan province with　increasing scope of about 1.2℃ during years of 2030-2040 compared with baseline period of 1986-2005 under RCP4.5 scenario. Thirdly, the possibility of warm events would increase slightly and cold events might reduce during the period of 2030-2040 in Yunnan Province