| 用灰色模型预测我国铁路水害发展趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 周华国 魏庆朝. 用灰色模型预测我国铁路水害发展趋势[J]. 灾害学, 1996, 11(2): 23-27 |
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| 作者姓名： | 周华国 魏庆朝 |
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| 作者单位： | 北方交通大学土建系 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据近１５ａ来我国铁路水害年断道时间和断道次数的数据特点，将不同程度水害年分为三个等级。在此基础上，建立了铁路水害的灰色预测模型。并用此模型预测了近期铁路水害大小和远期的发展趋势。这对于我国铁路水害防治的宏观决策具有指导意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测；水灾；铁路；灰色模型 |
RAILWAY FLOOD DEVELOPING TENDENCY IN CHINA PREDICTED BY GREY MODEL |
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| Zhou Huaguo, Wei Qingchao, Zhang Qinghang. RAILWAY FLOOD DEVELOPING TENDENCY IN CHINA PREDICTED BY GREY MODEL[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 1996, 11(2): 23-27 |
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| Authors: | Zhou Huaguo Wei Qingchao Zhang Qinghang |
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| Affiliation: | Northern Jiaotong University |
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| Abstract: | Considering the data of annual line stopped time and line stopped frequency caused by flood in the last 15 years in China, we classified the disaster orders and set up Grey Prediction Model for railway flood, by which we predicted the railway floods and its tendency. |
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| Keywords: | Grey Prediction Model Flood disaster Railway |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
