The mortality effect of ship-related fine particulate matter in the Sydney greater metropolitan region of NSW,Australia |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Public Health Observatory, Population Health Division, Sydney Local Health District, Australia;2. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia;3. Australian Maritime College, University of Tasmania, Australia;4. University Centre for Rural Health - North Coast, School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Australia;1. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;2. Air Quality Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto M3H 5T4, Canada;3. Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham 27708, USA;4. School of Atmospheric Sciences & Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;5. Guangdong Polytechnic of Environmental Protection Engineering, Foshan 528216, China;6. Guangdong Provincial Environmental Monitoring Center, Guangzhou 510308, China;7. Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China;1. Istituto di Scienze dell''Atmosfera e del Clima, ISAC-CNR, 73100 Lecce, Italy;2. Dipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie Biologiche e Ambientali, Università del Salento, 73100 Lecce, Italy;3. Istituto di Ricerca Sulle Acque, IRSA-CNR, 70132 Bari, Italy;1. Key Lab of Aerosol Chemistry and Physics, SKLLQG, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi''an 710061, China;2. Center for Excellence in Urban Atmospheric Environment, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China;3. Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai 200030, China;4. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO 80303, USA;5. Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palmenin aukio, 100101 Helsinki, Finland;6. University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049, China |
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| Abstract: | This study investigates the mortality effect of primary and secondary PM2.5 related to ship exhaust in the Sydney greater metropolitan region of Australia. A detailed inventory of ship exhaust emissions was used to model a) the 2010/11 concentration of ship-related PM2.5 across the region, and b) the reduction in PM2.5 concentration that would occur if ships used distillate fuel with a 0.1% sulfur content at berth or within 300 km of Sydney. The annual loss of life attributable to 2010/11 levels of ship-related PM2.5 and the improvement in survival associated with use of low-sulfur fuel were estimated from the modelled concentrations.In 2010/11, approximately 1.9% of the region-wide annual average population weighted-mean concentration of all natural and human-made PM2.5 was attributable to ship exhaust, and up to 9.4% at suburbs close to ports. An estimated 220 years of life were lost by people who died in 2010/11 as a result of ship exhaust-related exposure (95% CIβ: 140–290, where CIβ is the uncertainty in the concentration-response coefficient only). Use of 0.1% sulfur fuel at berth would reduce the population weighted-mean concentration of PM2.5 related to ship exhaust by 25% and result in a gain of 390 life-years over a twenty year period (95% CIβ: 260–520). Use of 0.1% sulfur fuel within 300 km of Sydney would reduce the concentration by 56% and result in a gain of 920 life-years over twenty years (95% CIβ: 600–1200).Ship exhaust is an important source of human exposure to PM2.5 in the Sydney greater metropolitan region. This assessment supports intervention to reduce ship emissions in the GMR. Local strategies to limit the sulfur content of fuel would reduce exposure and will become increasingly beneficial as the shipping industry expands. A requirement for use of 0.1% sulfur fuel by ships within 300 km of Sydney would provide more than twice the mortality benefit of a requirement for ships to use 0.1% sulfur fuel at berth. |
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