Projection of future temperature-related mortality due to climate and demographic changes |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Health and Environment, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1, Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, South Korea;2. Graduate School of Public Health, Asian Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, Seoul National University, 1, Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, South Korea;1. National Institute for Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.7 Panjiayuan Nanli, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100021, China;2. Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, 722 West 168th Street, New York, NY 10032, USA;1. National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Avda. Monforte de Lemos, 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain;2. Torrijos Public Health District, Castile-La Mancha Regional Health & Social Affairs Authority (Consejería de Sanidad y Asuntos Sociales de Castilla-La Mancha), Torrijos, Toledo, Spain;3. State Meteorological Agency, (AEMET), Madrid, Spain;1. School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia;2. Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Anhui, China |
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| Abstract: | Understanding the effects of global climate change from both environmental and human health perspectives has gained great importance. Particularly, studies on the direct effect of temperature increase on future mortality have been conducted. However, few of those studies considered population changes, and although the world population is rapidly aging, no previous study considered the effect of society aging. Here we present a projection of future temperature-related mortality due to both climate and demographic changes in seven major cities of South Korea, a fast aging country, until 2100; we used the HadGEM3-RA model under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and the United Nations world population prospects under three fertility scenarios (high, medium, and low). The results showed markedly increased mortality in the elderly group, significantly increasing the overall future mortality. In 2090s, South Korea could experience a four- to six-time increase in temperature-related mortality compared to that during 1992–2010 under four different RCP scenarios and three different fertility variants, while the mortality is estimated to increase only by 0.5 to 1.5 times assuming no population aging. Therefore, not considering population aging may significantly underestimate temperature risks. |
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