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Coping with uncertainty in environmental impact assessments: Open techniques
Institution:1. IceBridge Research Institutea, Universiteit Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, The Netherlands;2. Universiteit Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, The Netherlands;1. Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, South Africa;2. Research Unit for Environmental Science and Management, North West University, South Africa;3. School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, United Kingdom;4. School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom;1. School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom;2. Integral Sustainability, Australia;3. Research Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University, South Africa;4. Environmental Management, School of Science, Edith Cowan University, Western Australia, Australia;1. Netherlands Commission for Environmental Assessment, PO Box 2345; 3500 GH, Utrecht, The Netherlands;2. Environmental Governance, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands;3. Environmental Governance, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands;4. Forest and Nature Conservation Policy Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, The Netherlands
Abstract:Uncertainty is virtually unavoidable in environmental impact assessments (EIAs). From the literature related to treating and managing uncertainty, we have identified specific techniques for coping with uncertainty in EIAs. Here, we have focused on basic steps in the decision-making process that take place within an EIA setting. More specifically, we have identified uncertainties involved in each decision-making step and discussed the extent to which these can be treated and managed in the context of an activity or project that may have environmental impacts. To further demonstrate the relevance of the techniques identified, we have examined the extent to which the EIA guidelines currently used in Colombia consider and provide guidance on managing the uncertainty involved in these assessments. Some points that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in impact assessments in Colombia have been identified. These include the management of stakeholder values, the systematic generation of project options, and their associated impacts as well as the associated management actions, and the evaluation of uncertainties and assumptions. We believe that the relevant and specific techniques reported here can be a reference for future evaluations of other EIA guidelines in different countries.
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