Estimating and projecting the effect of cold waves on mortality in 209 US cities |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 230032, China;2. School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Brisbane, Qld, 4509, Australia;1. Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China;2. School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, China;3. Center for Environment and Population Health, School of Environment, Griffith University, Australia;4. Institute of Chronic Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China;1. Institute at Brown for Environment and Society, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA;2. Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, RI, USA;3. T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA;4. Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Camden, London, UK;1. Institute of Health and Environment, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1, Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, South Korea;2. Graduate School of Public Health, Asian Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, Seoul National University, 1, Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, South Korea |
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| Abstract: | The frequency, duration, and intensity of cold waves are expected to decrease in the near future under the changing climate. However, there is a lack of understanding on future mortality related to cold waves. The present study conducted a large-scale national projection to estimate future mortality attributable to cold waves during 1960–2050 in 209 US cities. Cold waves were defined as two, three, or at least four consecutive days with daily temperature lower than the 5th percentile of temperatures in each city. The lingering period of a cold wave was defined as the non-cold wave days within seven days following that cold wave period. First, with 168 million residents in 209 US cities during 1962–2006, we fitted over-dispersed Poisson regressions to estimate the immediate and lingering effects of cold waves on mortality and tested if the associations were modified by the duration of cold waves, the intensity of cold waves, and mean winter temperature (MWT). Then we projected future mortality related to cold waves using 20 downscaled climate models. Here we show that the cold waves (both immediate and lingering) were associated with an increased but small risk of mortality. The associations varied substantially across climate regions. The risk increased with the duration and intensity of cold waves but decreased with MWT. The projected mortality related to cold waves would decrease from 1960 to 2050. Such a decrease, however, is small and may not be able to offset the potential increase in heat-related deaths if the adaptation to heat is not adequate. |
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