Projecting ozone-related mortality in East China |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Public Health and Social Work, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4059, Australia;2. Center for Regional Environmental Research (Regional Atmospheric Modelling Section), National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan;3. School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Herston, QLD 4006, Australia;4. School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China;1. State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, PR China;2. School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK;3. School of Environment and State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing 10084, P.R. China;4. State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, PR China;5. School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, PR China;6. John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA;1. Department of Environmental Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States;2. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States;1. National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.7 Panjiayuan Nanli, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100021, China;2. Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, 722 West 168th Street, New York, NY 10032, USA;3. Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public Health, 715 Albany St, Talbot 4W, Boston, MA 02118, USA |
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| Abstract: | BackgroundThe concentrations of ozone (O3) in China are increasing, especially in East China, but its future trends and potential health impacts remain to be explored.ObjectivesThe objective was to assess future trends in O3 concentrations and related premature death in East China between 2005 and 2030.MethodsFirst, a global chemical transport model (MIROC-ESM-CHEM) and regional chemical transport modelling system (including the Weather Research and Forecasting model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model) were combined to estimate daily O3 concentrations in 2005 and 2030 in East China under the “current legislation” (CLE) and “maximum technically feasible reduction” (MFR) scenarios which were applied globally. O3 concentrations were then linked with population projections, mortality projections, and O3-mortality associations to estimate changes in O3-related mortality in East China.ResultsThe annual mean O3 concentration was projected to increase in East China between 2005 and 2030 under the CLE scenario, while decrease under the MFR scenario. Under the CLE scenario, O3-attributable health burden could increase by at least 40,000 premature deaths in East China, without considering the population growth. Under the MFR scenario, the health burden could decrease by up to 260,000 premature deaths as a result of the reduction in O3 concentration with a static population. However, when the population growth was considered, O3-attributable health burden could increase by up to 46,000 premature deaths in East China under the MFR scenario.ConclusionsThe results suggest that the health burden attributable to O3 may increase in East China in 2030. |
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