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Mass balance-based regression modeling of Cd and Zn accumulation in urban soils of Beijing
Authors:Chi Peng  Meie Wang  Weiping Chen  Andrew C Chang  John C Crittenden
Institution:1 State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China;2 Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521, USA;3 Brook Byers Institute for Sustainable Systems, Hightower Chair and Georgia Research Alliance Eminent Scholar in Environmental Technologies, GA 30332, USA
Abstract:Accumulation of heavy metals in urban soil can pose adverse impacts on public health and terrestrial ecosystems. We developed a mass balance-based regression model to simulate the heavy metal accumulation in urban soils as a function of time and to explore connections between metal concentration and urbanization processes. Concentrations of Cd and Zn in 68 residential soil samples in the urban area of Beijing were used. The background concentrations, the loss rates and the input fluxes of Cd and Zn in urban soils of Beijing during the last three decades were estimated using a regression of the time series of accumulations of the metals. Based on the regression estimates, we simulated the general trends of Cd and Zn accumulation in the soils from 1978 to 2078. The concentrations of Cd and Zn in urban soil generally increased with the population growth, vehicle use and coal consumption. The mean concentrations of Cd and Zn in urban soil of Beijing would increase by 3 fold over the next 70 years for the current development scenario. The mass balance-based regression approach, which is able to reconstruct the history data of urban soil pollution, provides fundamental information for urban planning and environmental management.
Keywords:Heavy metals  Mass balance model  Urbanization  Trading space for time  Risk prediction  Soil pollution
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