中国农业用水与经济增长的Kuznets假说及验证

提出中国农业用水与经济增长的Kuznets假说，并对此进行了分析和验证。在对改革开放以来中国经济增长与农业用水的趋势进行直观分析后，采用了中国31个省市区1999～2005年人均农业用水量和经济增长相关指标的面板数据，通过计量模型检验农业用水库兹涅茨曲线在中国是否存在，定量分析了农业用水量变动与经济增长之间的规律。研究结果表明：农业用水量最初随着人均GDP和人均农林牧渔业增加值增长而增加，当达到某一个阈值点后，开始逐渐下降，基本上符合库兹涅茨曲线的特征。中国目前已处于农业用水库兹涅茨曲线的右半段，但农业用水量下降的速度较为缓慢。因此，在促进经济增长的同时，要注重利用管理和技术等手段来发展节水农业，这将有助于在农业产业内部提升用水效率，缩减农业用水量。〖

HYPOTHESIS AND VALIDATION ON THE KUZNETS CURVE OF AGRICULTURAL WATER USE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

The hypothesis on the Kuznets Curve of agricultural water use and economic growth in China has been put forward in this paper.Based on the analysis of the trend of economic growth and agricultural wa- ter use after reforming and opening-up,the authors collected China's panel data of agricultural water use per capita and economic growth indexes from 1999 to 2005,and examined the existence of Kuznets Curve of ag- ricultural water use by econometric model,then analyzed the relationship quantitatively between the agri- cultural water use and economic growth.The empirical evidence demonstrates that the increase in GDP per capita and added value of farming,animal husbandry and fishery per capita may be associated with the in- crease of agricultural water use at first,and the quantity of agricultural water use will decline when arriving a point,which basically conforms to the characteristic of Kuznets Curve.China has already located on the right side of the curve now.However,the speed of decline is slow.So,the development of water-saving type agriculture based on the measures of management and technology must be paid more attention,which will be helpful for the improvement of the water use efficiency and the reduction of water use in agriculture.