地铁系统脆弱性的建模与分析

为了揭示地铁系统脆弱性的内涵,提高地铁运营安全性与可靠性。基于工程系统脆弱性和网络拓扑脆弱性理论,采用系统建模与分析的方法,建立了地铁系统脆弱性的脆弱链模型,进行了基于功能和界面关系的脆弱性分析。结果表明:脆弱性是地铁系统的固有隐藏属性,以功能和界面关系为载体,以易感性和易损性为外部表现,并在网络化运营条件体现出分布集中性和影响扩散性;地铁系统脆弱性的脆弱链模型由脆弱源、脆弱性关联和脆弱点构成,干扰通过脆弱链实现了易感性行为向易损性后果的转化,脆弱源的易感性能、脆弱点的易损性能和脆弱性关联性能是决定上述转化过程的根本要素;地铁系统的脆弱性程度与子系统间的依赖程度和界面耦合难度正相关。

Modeling and Analysis of Subway System Vulnerability

In order to explore the core of subway system vulnerability and improve operational safety and reliability of sub-way system ,this paper builds the chain model of engineering system vulnerability and analyzes it from perspectives of func-tional and interactional relationship ,by using system modeling and analysis methods and based on theories of engineering system and network vulnerability .The results show that the vulnerability is an inherent and hidden property of a subway sys-tem based on functional and interactional relationship and it comes out with susceptibility and fragility ,showing concentration and diffusion in network operation .The chain model of subway system vulnerability is made of source ,correlation and point , it can transfer a susceptible behavior to a fragile consequence and all the three factors affect this process .Two positive corre-lations are found :(a) between vulnerability and relevance ,(b) between vulnerability and coupling .