基于云模型的SPA模型在石化装置危险性评价中的应用

针对现有石化装置危险性评价模型未能充分反映评价指标模糊性和随机性的不足,提出了一种基于云模型的SPA模型,用于石化装置的危险性评价。首先利用云模型中的逆向云发生器计算云权重Wcloud=(Ex,En,He)。然后将云权重应用于五元联系数的集对分析中,进行综合评判可以得到综合评价云模型。通过MATLAB编程将其与标准评语云模型进行比较,确定评价对象的危险等级。结果表明,该模型对石化生产装置的危险性评价能够充分体现评价指标的随机性与模糊性,评价结果更为符合实际。

Application of SPA Model Based on Cloud Model in Risk Assessment of Petrochemical Plant

In the risk assessment of petrochemical plant ,owing to the deficiency of qualitative concept of randomness and fuzziness coexistence ,a SPA model based on cloud model is proposed .First ,the cloud weight [Wcloud= ( Ex ,En ,He )] is calculated by backward cloud generator .Then the cloud weight should be used in the analysis of the set of the five element connection number ,and the comprehensive evaluation cloud model can be obtained .Through the MATLAB programming , the comprehensive evaluation cloud model is compared with the standard one ,and the risk level of the evaluation object is determined .The results show that the model can fully reflect the randomness and fuzziness of the evaluation index ,and the evaluation results are more realistic .