安全生产应急预案桌面推演的设计与实施探讨

对实战演练和桌面推演进行分析与比较;阐述桌面推演的历史沿革与演化;提出应急预案桌面推演方案框架设计要点;尤其对推演方案中事故场景设计的主要关注点,如事故发生现实可能性,事故后果危害或灾难性,场景演化过程合理性、可信性,事故发展演变多样性,事故场景典型代表性和桌面推演可实现性等都提出了见解。给出桌面推演实例,并阐述桌面推演取得实效的基本条件和保障措施,对应急预案桌面推演在技术上进一步深入发展和完善的前景进行了探讨和展望。

Discussion on the Design and Implementation of Desktop Maneuver of Emergency Plan for Work Safety

The actual maneuvers and desktop maneuvers are analyzed and compared. Historical evolutions of desktop maneuvers are elaborately expounded. Then, the design essentials for desktop maneuvers of emergency plan are set forth. Especially for the major concerned points of accident background design such as the possibility of accident occurring, the dangerous or catastrophic consequence of accident, the rationality and creditability of scene evolution, the diversity of accident evolution, the typical representation of accident background and the realization of desktop maneuvers, many new visions are raised. Besides, a desktop maneuver example is given, which illustrates the basic conditions and safeguard mechanism of an effective desktop maneuver. Finally, further development of desktop maneuvers are technically discussed and prospected.