Influence of various emission scenarios on ozone in Europe

In this study, we investigated the effect of numerous regulations enforced since 1985 to improve air quality on ozone in Europe with the focus on Switzerland, using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) for a specific summer period. Several emission scenarios for the year 2010 were also considered. The model results suggest that the emission reductions of ozone precursors should have been effective to reduce ozone production between 1985 and 2000 in northern Switzerland. However, observations do not indicate any significant change in surface ozone levels since early 1990s, except in the region of Zurich where there is a small negative trend. On the other hand, the model predictions match very well the spatial variability of the trends but the calculated trends are around 0.5 ppb year⁻¹ lower than those observed. This difference is similar to the background ozone increase as suggested by the long-term observations at the high Alpine station Jungfraujoch. These results support the hypothesis that the decrease in local ozone production due to emission reductions might have been partly or completely compensated by the simultaneous increase in the background ozone. In 2010, a strict application of the Gothenburg Protocol in Europe would lead to a decrease in peak ozone concentrations by about 5% in Switzerland under the meteorological conditions applied. Our calculations also indicated that emission controls only in Switzerland would not be very effective to improve the air quality in the future. The further development of the background ozone will in any case be very important for the tropospheric ozone levels.