工业居民混合区降尘含量的灰色GM(1,1)预测

本文采有灰色理论中的预测方法，以９０—９４年度的降尘监测数据为基础，建立了邯郸市工业居民混合区降尘含量的ＧＭ（１，１）预测模型，其数学表达式为：＾Ｘ（１）（ｋ＋１）＝５６０２９ｅ００５６４１２ｋ－５３０８３，经三种方法对模型精度检验，由模式计算的预测值与历年的实测值的平均相对误差仅为－０００８％，关联度系数γ＝０９０５，后验差比值Ｃ＝００３，模型精度为一级，经与９５年度预测值与实测值对比验证，误差２７４％，说明本模型能真实地反映该区降尘的发展变化规律，预测数据可作为制定该区降尘防治规划的依据。

The Grey GM(1,1) Forecast for the Dust reduction Content in Industrial Residential Quarters.

Summary Based on dust reduction data through the years 90 94,this technical paper tries to present how we use the grey theory forecast method to establish a GM(1,1) forecast model,whose mathematical formula is (1) (k+1) =560 29e 0 056412k -530 83,to monitor the dust reduction thickness in Handan industrial residential areas.The model,in terms of its exactitude,ranks the first class.The data taken from the forecast can be used as criteria to establish a dust reduction project.