A time series analysis of environmental and metrological factors impact on cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in an endemic area of Dehloran,Iran |
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| Authors: | Ali Nikonahad Ali Khorshidi Hamid Reza Ghaffari Hamideh Ebrahimi Aval Mohammad Miri Ali Amarloei Heshmatollah Nourmoradi Amir Mohammadi |
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| Institution: | 1.Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health,Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences,Yazd,Iran;2.Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health,Ilam University of Medical Sciences,Ilam,Iran;3.Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health,Ilam University of Medical Sciences,Ilam,Iran;4.Social Determinants in Health Promotion Research Center,Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences,Bandar Abbas,Iran;5.Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health,Tehran University of Medical Sciences,Tehran,Iran;6.Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health,Semnan University of Medical Sciences,Semnan,Iran;7.Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health,Sabzevar University of Medical Sciences,Sabzevar,Iran;8.Biotechnology and Medical Plant Research Center,Ilam University of Medical Sciences,Ilam,Iran |
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| Abstract: | The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between the environmental and metrological variables and cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) transmission and its prediction in a region susceptible to this disease prevalence using a time series model. The accurate locations of 4437 CL diagnosed from 2011 to 2015 were obtained to be used in the time series model. Temperature, number of days with temperature over 30 °C, and number of earthquake were related to CL incidence using the Seasonal Auto-correlated Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model according to the Box-Jenkins method. In addition, the relationship between land use and surface soil type in 500- and 1000-m radius around the CL patients were investigated. The SARIMA models showed significant associations between environmental and meteorological variables and CL incidence adjusted for seasonality and auto-correlation. The result indicated that there are need more robust preventive programs in earthquake-prone areas with high temperature and inceptisol soil type than other areas. In addition, the region with these characteristics should be considered as high-risk areas for CL prevalence. |
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