基于环境库兹涅茨曲线理论的中国“先污染，后治理”问题的研究

研究表明，经济发展与环境退化之间经常呈现倒“U”型曲线关系，许多学者将其定义为环境库兹涅茨曲线（Environmental Kuznets Curves,EKC），并将其运用到对发展中国家和发达国家的“先污染，后治理”的发展模式的解释之中，但是环境库兹涅茨曲线假说本身并不完善。利用现有数据建立了针对CO2和水污染物COD排放量的中国的环境库兹涅茨曲线。同时对其未来走势进行预测，得出结论：近期内CO2排放量会随着经济的发展持续增加；而COD的排放量已经趋于稳定，只会有略微增加。

Approach on "Treatment after Pollution" Based on Environmental Kuznets Curve of China

There is an inverted ＂U＂ shaped relation between economic development and environmental degradation, which is called environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC）. EKC is often taken to explain ＂treatment after pollution＂ process in both developing countries and developed countries. Empirical studies of EKC have shown four different relationships between environmental degradation and economics development. A Chinese EKC to forecast CO2 and COD emissions was established. In a short term, the emissions of CO2 will still be is rising while the emissions of water waste COD will be in stable status.