地表参数对面源大气预测结果的影响性分析研究

为了研究地表参数取值对AERMOD中面源模拟预测浓度值的影响,文章通过改变粗糙度、反照率和波文比的取值来进行不同地表参数与预测结果的相关性分析,同时采用正交试验法来研究不同地表参数对预测结果的敏感性.相关性分析表明,不同地表参数和预测结果有着很高的相关性.敏感性分析表明,反照率数值变化对小时最大落地浓度的敏感性最大,粗糙度数值变化对日均和年均最大落地浓度的敏感性最大.通过研究可以看出在面源大气预测过程中合理选择地表参数值是准确预测的前提.

Influence of Land Surface Parameters on Surface Atmospheric Forecast

In order to study the influence of land surface parameters selection on the prediction results of surface source in AERMOD, this paper conduced a correlation analysis on the influence of different factors on prediction results by changing the values of different land surface parameters, including surface roughness length, albedo and Bowen ratio.Then the orthogonal experiment design was used to study the sensitivity of different factors to the prediction results.The correlation analysis shows that there is a high correlation between different land surface parameters and prediction results.Sensitivity studies showed that the variation of albedo was most sensitive to hourly maximum land concentration.The variation of surface roughness length was most sensitive to daily average and annual average maximum land concentration.It can be seen from the research that the reasonable selection of land surface parameters in the process of surface source atmospheric prediction is a prerequisite for accurate prediction.