| 模型预测在土地利用规划中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 王新军,张永福,牟磊,王伟.模型预测在土地利用规划中的应用[J].资源开发与市场,2006,22(4):324-326. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王新军 张永福 牟磊 王伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830046 |
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| 摘 要： | 阐述了4种预测模型的原理，并以新疆喀什市的城市用地预测为例，通过时间序列建立了4种预测模型，对城市用地实际值进行预测与分析，从而得出各种模型的特点。认为只有选择最适合的预测模型，才能为土地利用规划提供科学依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 土地利用 线性回归 灰色模型 移动平均 指数平滑 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-8141(2006)04-0324-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-05-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-06-25 |
Application of Prediction Model in Land Plan |
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| WANG Xin-jun,ZHANG Yong-fu,MOU Lei,WANG Wei.Application of Prediction Model in Land Plan[J].Resource Development & Market,2006,22(4):324-326. |
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| Authors: | WANG Xin-jun ZHANG Yong-fu MOU Lei WANG Wei |
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| Institution: | College of Resource and Environment, Xinjiang Unviersity, Ummqi 830046 |
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| Abstract: | This paper elaborated four kind of models principles specifically, and took the Kashi City urban land utilization in Xinjiang as the example, four kind of models was constituted by the pass period,used the actual value of urban land utilization in the city to prediete and the analysis with each kind of modal. Thus obtained each kind of model the characteristic, choosing the most suitable prediction model. It was provided the scientific basis for the land utilization plan. |
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| Keywords: | land utilization linear regression grey model motion average pate exponenitial smooth |
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