江苏省能源消费与经济增长耦合关系研究

能源消费与经济增长之间的关系是环境经济学研究的重要领域。以江苏省为研究区域，基于1990～2005年的年度数据，运用“脱钩”和“复钩”理论，协整分析技术和Granger因果关系检验方法，辨识和分析了的能源消费总量、电力消费和地区生产总值之间的耦合关系，实证研究表明，1990～2000年，江苏能源消费与地区生产总值处于弱“脱钩”状态，进入2000年后，二者呈现出扩张性“复钩”趋势。研究同时还发现江苏的能源消费总量与GDP之间存在长期均衡关系，表现出能源消费促进经济增长的单向格兰杰因果关系。研究结果表明了当前能源是影响江苏经济增长的关键要素，江苏在经济增长和能源利用战略等方面应当采取更加积极有效的对策。〖

LINKING BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

The paper analyzed the relation between energy consumption and economic growth with the conceptual model of relative “de linking” and “re linking”,co integration techniques and Granger causality test based on annual data from 1990 to 2005 in Jiangsu Province.The results showed that there was weak de linking between energy consumption and economic growth during the years 1990～2000,but in recent years,the trend in Jiangsu Province was an expansive re linking of energy consumption from economic growth.The study also found that energy consumption and economic growth was co integrated and there was only unidirectional Granger causality running from energy consumption to real GDP，but not the vice versa.The estimation results are of policy implication on economic growth and energy strategies for Jiangsu Province.〖