基于F-H方法的冲突局势稳定性分析方法及其应用

冲突是一类普遍的社会现象，基于元对策的F H冲突分析方法已经在水资源冲突管理领域得到了广泛的应用。在深入分析F H方法原理的基础上，提出了一种考虑决策者对冲突问题预见能力的冲突局势稳定性分析方法，寻求冲突问题的均衡解。在局势稳定性分析过程中，当局中人基于个人预见水平不存在单方改进某可行局势的动机时，该局势对此局中人而言是稳定的。当全体局中人都认为某可行局势是稳定的，则此局势称为冲突问题的均衡点。最后，该方法被运用到湖北省宜昌市黄柏河流域水资源冲突问题中，模拟结果表明宜昌市水电局同时采取“激励合作”“强化管理”、东风渠灌区管理局“增加引水”、黄柏河流域管理局“追求效益”是最稳定的一种策略组合。提出的冲突局势稳定性分析为寻求冲突均衡提供了一种可行方法。

STABILITY ANALYSIS FOR CONFLICT STATES BASED ON F-H METHOD

Conflicts exist in nearly every field around the world.They appear as soon as benefits dispute emerges from more than two players.Water resources are special natural resource,and the conflicts of water allocation and distribution are undoubted difficult problems in international levels.For that,F H method based on Meta Game theory has been employed widely in water resources conflict management.In this paper,the main procedure of F H method was analyzed in detail and then an improved stability analysis for conflict states was proposed to pursue the conflict equilibrium,in consideration of players' foreseeable ability for state transfer.In the process of stability analysis,any player involved in conflict is assumed to be willing to improve or pursue a better state from the view of his own, which is in line with general rule in society living.If one player has no incentive to improve certain feasible state unilaterally based on his foreseeable ability,the state is a stable and satisfied one for him. Moreover,this state is the very equilibrium point of conflict problem if all players deem it stable.Finally,one case study of Huangbeihe River Basin,in Yichang City,Hubei Province,was carried out.There were three players in the water management strategies conflicts resolution,namely Dongfengqu Irrigation District Management Bureau,Huangbaihe River Basin Management Bureau,and Water Resources Bureau of Yichang City.The simulation results showed that one group of strategies was rather stable,in which Irrigation District Management Bureau increased water allocation,River Basin Management Bureau raised economic benefits and Water Resources Bureau encouraged regional cooperation and intensified administration.The suggested model supplies possible solution to the typical conflict problems.