基于BP-ANN的生态安全预警研究——以苏州市为例

对区域生态安全进行预警研究，有助于提升区域可持续发展能力。结合预警理论，通过构建生态安全预警指标体系，运用超载度模型及Matlab支持下的BP人工神经网络（BP ANN）对经济快速发展的苏州市1996～2015年生态安全进行预警分析。研究表明：①BP ANN模拟效果较好，将其用于生态安全预警研究是可行的；②1996~2007年苏州市生态系统整体处于临界安全的中警状态，其超载水平经历了“加重 稳定 缓解”的变化过程，虽然今后几年内人类支持能力将持续提高，系统超载水平将波动性下降，但资源和环境问题仍不容乐观。在今后的发展中需要发挥政府主导性作用，从环境保护与治理、科技创新、产业转型、资源管理及人口调控机制等方面制定对策措施。〖

EARLY WARNING OF ECOLOGICAL SECURITY BASED ON BP ANN A CASE STUDY OF SUZHOU

The issue of resources and environment continues to be highlighted during the process of rapid industrialization and urbanization,so it is helpful to enhance the ability of regional socio economic sustainable development to do the early warning research on the ecological security.Combining with the theory of early warning,the paper built up an index system for early warning by selecting 28 indicators,and carried out the study on the ecological security in Suzhou City from the year 1996 to 2015 by using the overload degree model and BP ANN model supported by Matlab.The result showed that it was feasible to do early warning study on ecological security by using BP ANN model because of its high precision of simulation result.It also showed that the ecosystem in Suzhou was in the state of criticality safety,and its overloading level had experienced a process of “aggravation stability mitigation” during 1996 to 2007.Although the human's ability to support ecosystem will continue to be improved in the next few years,and the overall overloading level of ecosystem will be declined in volatility,the status of resources security and ecological security are not optimistic.In order to enhance the ability of sustainable development,the government should play its leading role and take measures from the aspects of environmental protection and management,scientific and technological innovation,industrial restructuring,resources management,and population control mechanisms, etc.〖