Conditioning uncertainty in ecological models: Assessing the impact of fire management strategies |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, 500 Yarra Boulevard, Richmond, Vic 3121, Australia;2. School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Baldwin Spencer Building, Parkville, Vic 3010, Australia;3. School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Roxby Building L69 7Zt, United Kingdom;1. Botany, School of Rural Science and Natural Resources, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia;2. Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, NT 0909, Australia;3. ERP Environmental Decisions Hub, School of Botany, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia;4. Darwin Centre for Bushfire Research, Charles Darwin University, Darwin NT 0909, Australia;5. Flora & Fauna Division, Department of Land Resource Management, Northern Territory Government, Arid Zone Research Institute, South Stuart Hyw, Alice Springs 0870, Australia;6. Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, University of Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia;7. School of Veterinary and Life Science, Murdoch University, Perth WA 6150, Australia;8. Science and Conservation Division, Department of Parks and Wildlife and CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, Kensington, WA 6983, Australia;9. Science and Conservation Division, Department of Parks and Wildlife, Kununurra WA 6743, Australia;10. Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, P.Bag Rondebosch, Cape Town 7701, South Africa;11. School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK;1. Universidade de Trás-os-Montes Alto Douro, UTAD, Escola de Ciências e Tecnologia, Quinta de Prados, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal;2. University of Lisbon, Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Lisbon, Portugal;3. Centro de Investigação e de Tecnologias Agro-Ambientais e Biológicas, CITAB, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, Quinta de Prados, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal |
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| Abstract: | A simple simulation model has been used to investigate whether large fires in Mediterranean regions are a result of extreme weather conditions or the cumulative effect of a policy of fire suppression over decades. The model reproduced the fire regime characteristics for a wide variety of regions of Mediterranean climate in California, France and Spain. The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology was used to assess the possibility of multiple model parameter sets being consistent with the available calibration data. The resulting set of behavioural models was used to assess uncertainty in the predictions. The results suggested that (1) for a given region, the total area burned is much the same whether suppression or prescribed fire policies are used or not; however fire suppression enhances fire intensity and prescribed burning reduces it; (2) the proportion of large fires can be reduced, but not eliminated, using prescribed fires, especially in areas which have the highest proportion of large fires. |
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