Outbreak suppression by predators depends on spatial distribution of prey

The capacity of a predator population to suppress a prey population that varies in abundance and spatial distribution is explored in a lattice simulation model. The model is based on empirically derived parameters for particular species. Within season predation by Pterostichus cupreus (Coleoptera: Carabidae) of varying densities and distributions of the prey Rhopalosiphum padi (Homoptera: Aphididae) in spring cereals was simulated. From these spatially explicit simulations prey population suppression was found to be largely dependent on the spatial distribution of the prey. A possible mechanism was that high degrees of prey aggregation provided refuge for the prey that, when aggregated, escaped detection by P. cupreus. In contrast, P. cupreus was found to efficiently suppress incipient outbreaks for evenly distributed prey populations, even at high prey densities. A higher predator density compensated for the lowered control ability of the predators for highly aggregated prey populations and hastened the decline of the prey population.