船用板式换热器可靠寿命预计方法研究

目的对于新型船用板式换热器进行可靠寿命预计,考虑到相似产品使用期间会获得定量的信息,提出一种利用相似产品信息进行产品可靠性预计的方法。方法相似产品的相似度由专家根据经验分析给出,其后根据继承因子直接对相似产品的可靠度进行折合。对板式换热器与相似产品的性能数据进行对比分析,利用模糊数学中贴近度的概念,计算得到两产品之间的折算系数。结果结合相似产品的实际使用数据,通过对流速、换热系数和其他相似因素的比较,得到产品对于相似产品的折算系数为0.286,从而进一步确定该板式换热器折算后的试验时间,利用无故障定时截尾寿命评估方法对该产品的可靠性进行粗略估计。结论该方法对利用相似产品进行寿命评估提供了一种新思路,从产品的性能特征出发,在一定程度上优化了专家评估相似度的主观因素。

Study on the Technology of Reliable Life Prediction of Ship Plate Heat Exchanger

Objective For the reliable life prediction of a new- type plate heat exchanger of ship, this paper presented a prediction method of product reliability using similar product information, taking into account the quantitative information obtained during use of similar products. Methods The similarity ratio was given by the experts based on their experience, and then the reliability of similar products was directly converted using inheritance factor. The performance data of the plate heat exchanger and similar products were comparatively analyzed, and the conversion coefficient between the two products was calculated using the concept of fuzzy closeness. Results In combination with the actual using data of similar products, through the comparison of heat transfer coefficient, velocity change and other factors, the similar product conversion coefficient was finally determined to be 0.286. The experimental time of the plate heat exchanger after conversion was further determined, and the reliability of this product was roughly estimated using the trouble-free truncated life evaluation method. Conclusion This method offered a new method for life estimation using similar products, and optimized the expert assessment in part on the similarity of the subjective factor from the view of product performance features.