How global conditions impact regional agricultural production and nitrogen surpluses in the German Elbe River Basin

Agricultural land use has shifted towards more intensified production because the prices of agricultural products have increased during the past years. Just a few years ago, voluntary area set-aside was a lucrative alternative in some regions. But nowadays, land is re-cultivated again, inter alia with biomass crops. Consequently, this affects the soil and nutrient balances in agriculture. The global changes on the world markets influence agricultural production and thus the water cycle at the regional scale. In this paper, the regional developments and policy alternatives are discussed for the Elbe River Basin. The paper concludes that on average, no substantial effects of nitrogen surpluses are expected for the Elbe River Basin due to a continuing decline in animal herds. However, at the county level, nitrogen surpluses are likely to exceed the maximum threshold of 60 kg nitrogen per hectare (stipulated in the German Fertiliser Regulation) due to regional concentrations of animal production. A halving of the threshold to 30 kg per hectare shows that the marginal costs of nitrogen surplus reduction regionally exceeded 10 Euros per kilogram nitrogen.