| 基于动态贝叶斯网络的石化装置火灾事故动态风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 周宁,吴克建,李雪,刘晅亚,袁雄军,李徐伟,曹林林,乔世伟. 基于动态贝叶斯网络的石化装置火灾事故动态风险分析[J]. 工业安全与环保, 2022, 48(2): 6-10,21. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-425X.2022.02.002 |
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| 作者姓名： | 周宁 吴克建 李雪 刘晅亚 袁雄军 李徐伟 曹林林 乔世伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 常州大学石油工程学院 江苏常州213016;应急管理部天津消防研究所 天津300381 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划重点专项(2017YFC0806600);江苏省“六大人才高峰”创新人才团队项目(TD-JNHB-013);江苏省高校自然科学研究重大项目(17KJA440001);江苏省研究生培养创新工程研究生科研与实践创新计划(KYCX20_2576,SJCX20_0986)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 为揭示石油炼化装置事故风险动态特性和事故情景演变路径,在对石化装置进行风险因素分析的基础上构建石化装置火灾事故故障树,基于贝叶斯网络非常规突发事故的演变过程,构建情景演变下的动态贝叶斯网络模型,在综合考虑应急措施的基础上,利用MATLAB软件和联合概率公式计算出各种事故场景的状态概率.以丙烯精馏装置火灾事故为例,结果表...
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| 关 键 词： | 动态风险分析 石化装置 动态贝叶斯网络 故障树 事故场景演变 |
Dynamic risk analysis of petrochemical plant fire accident based on dynamic Bayesian network |
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| ZHOU Ning,WU Kejian,LI Xue,LIU Xuanya,YUAN Xiongjun,LI Xuwei,CAO Linlin,QIAO Shiwei. Dynamic risk analysis of petrochemical plant fire accident based on dynamic Bayesian network[J]. Industrial Safety and Dust Control, 2022, 48(2): 6-10,21. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-425X.2022.02.002 |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Ning WU Kejian LI Xue LIU Xuanya YUAN Xiongjun LI Xuwei CAO Linlin QIAO Shiwei |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Petroleum Engineering of Changzhou University Changzhou,Jiangsu 213016;不详) |
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| Abstract: | In order to reveal the dynamic characteristics of accident risk and the evolution path of accident scenarios in petroleum refining equipment,a petrochemical equipment fire accident fault tree is constructed based on the analysis of risk factors of petrochemical equipment,a dynamic Bayesian network model under scenario evolution based on the evolution process of unconventional emergencies of Bayesian networks,and based on comprehensive consideration of emergency measures,MATLAB software and joint probability formulas are used to calculate the state probabilities of various accident scenarios.Taking the fire accident of a propylene rectification device as an example,the results show that the main influencing factors of the propylene rectification device failure are the failure of the rectification tower body,the condenser and the reboiler.Among them,the probability of propylene leakage and fire being controlled is 73.7%,and the device occurs.The probability of extinguishing the flowing fire is 60.4%,and the probability of successful repair of the condenser and reboiler is 57%.The dynamic risk analysis method based on Bayesian network can reasonably predict the evolution of petrochemical plant fire accidents and provide a theoretical basis for the emergency decision-making of petrochemical plant fire accidents. |
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| Keywords: | dynamic risk analysis petrochemical plant dynamic Bayesian network fault tree evolution of accident scenario |
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