石化企业伤亡事故率的系统动力学仿真

针对石化企业伤亡事故率的复杂性和与企业运行的系统相关性,为了科学地预测伤亡事故率,提出了利用系统动力学对石化企业伤亡事故率进行仿真试验的方法.在对石化企业伤亡事故率进行了系统动力学分析之后,建立了石化企业伤亡事故率系统动力学仿真模型,对某石化企业进行了仿真试验,并分析了仿真试验的结果.试验应用表明,利用系统动力学对石化企业伤亡事故率进行仿真是科学有效的.

System dynamic simulation for casualty rate of petrochemical corporation

This paper intends to bring forward a system dynamic simulation for the casualty rate of petrochemical enterprises in hoping to reduce the casualty rate. As is reported, it has become a more and more serious problem to strengthen its safety management and establish safety casualty-warning and preventive systems in such enterprises. So far as we know, it is the very basis to study the system dynamics, which is an advanced theory established on the feedback theory and the system control theory. Besides, the system dynamics is both a theory and a method highly adaptable to meet the changing needs for it with the time going on, especially for the systems with higher order, nonlinear or multi-feedback nature. Its biggest advantage lies in that it can integrate the qualitative control and the quantitative control into one unified. To make the system dynamics available for the actual operational practice, we have made an analysis of the underlying mechanisms of the factors likely to lead the casualty accidents. Then, a simulation model for such casualty happenings is founded on the basic system dynamics. To prove its availability, a simulation test has been designed for a sample petrochemical corporation with the results of corresponding test data provided. In addition, the trend of the casualty rate of the corporation has also been analyzed according to the testing data. And, finally, some useful recommendations are given to reduce and control the operational mis-performance rate. Thus, a comprehensive discussion and corresponding guide has been provided on how to use the simulation model scientifically and effectively based on the given theory in the petrochemical enterprises.