劳动力老龄化对农村土地流转的影响——土地情结与劳动能力限制准占主导?

已有研究在老龄化对农村土地流转的影响上存在争论,主要原因是其受到老龄化所带来的土地情结与劳动能力限制两方面因素的共同影响,亟需厘清两者关系以深化老龄化对农村土地流转影响的认识。利用CLDS(2016)的全国基线调查数据,通过中介效应模型,对土地情结与劳动能力限制在老龄化影响农村土地流转中的中介效应进行实证检验,并对两者强弱关系展开对比与讨论。结果表明:土地情结与劳动能力限制均表现出较强的中介效应。平均而言,老年人口的土地情结可以解释农户土地供给概率的16.37%、供给面积的12.34%,以及农户土地需求概率的6.72%、需求面积的6.43%;老年人口的劳动能力限制可以解释农户土地供给概率的40.10%、供给面积的36.50%,以及农户土地需求概率的12.34%、需求面积的14.49%。相比土地情结,劳动能力限制的中介效应更强,其综合效应表现为劳动力老龄化显著增加了农户的土地供给,同时亦显著抑制了农户的土地需求。因此,随着老龄化加剧,农村土地流转市场面临的问题并非供给不足,而是需求不足。需加大农业新型经营主体培育力度,提高农业自动化水平和完善农地经营补偿机制以激活土地流转市场的有效需求。

Effect of Rural Ageing Labor Force on Land Transfer: Land Complex or Labor Capability Restriction Dominates?

Abstract：Some researches have already been carried out to discuss about the effect of rural ageing labor force on land transfer. Two main reasons for this effect are believed to be land complex and labor capacity restriction, which are both caused by aging. It is significant to clarify the relationship between the two factors in order to deepen the understanding of the effect of rural ageing labor force on land transfer. Using the national baseline survey data of CLDS (2016) and the intermediary effect model, this paper empirically tests the intermediary effect of land complex and labor capacity restriction on the influence of rural ageing labor force on land transfer, and make comparison between them . The results show that land complex and labor capacity restriction both show strong mediating effect. On average, the land complex of the elderly population can explain 16.37% of the probability of land supply, 12.34% of the supply area, 6.72% of the probability of land demand and 6.43% of the demand area. The labor capacity constraints of the elderly population can explain 40.10% of the probability of farmer land supply, 36.50% of the supply area, 12.34% of the probability of farmer land demand and 14.49% of the demand area. Compared with the land complex, the mediating effect of labor capacity restriction is stronger. Its comprehensive effect is that the aging of labor force significantly increases the land supply of farmers, and also significantly inhibits the land inflow demand of farmers. Therefore, with the aggravation of aging, the problem of rural land transfer market is not insufficient supply, but insufficient demand. In order to activate the effective demand of land circulation market, it is necessary to strengthen the cultivation of new agricultural management subjects, improve the level of agricultural automation and improve the compensation mechanism of agricultural land management.