基于供需匹配模型的秦巴山区人地关系均衡状态及空间管控研究

通过构建供需匹配模型对秦巴山区人地关系均衡状态进行定量研究,采用OLS最小二乘法和GWR地理加权法对空间供给能力和空间需求强度间的作用关系和影响机制进行了分析,在此基础上提出针对性、差异化的空间管控模式。结果表明:(1)秦巴山区存在明显的供需空间错位,供给能力中部高、外围低,中部高值区的区县供给指数多处于0.72～1.16之间,外围区县供给指数多小于0.6;需求强度则与供给能力基本相反,中部区县需求强度均小于0.14,外围和东部区域需求强度普遍较高,最高值主要位于秦岭北麓、东麓和汉江中游的区县;这种供需错位源于复杂地形阻隔下的空间资源配置失效。(2)人-地供需两端相互作用,作用程度在地形影响下存在明显空间分异。(3)人地关系均衡指数总体较低,且分布极不平衡,呈现明显的"中部低、外围高"特征,低效均衡、协调均衡与空间失衡的区县数量比约为11∶3∶2。(4)可将研究区分为发展严控区、发展提升区、发展优化区和发展疏解区四大管控分区,针对均衡状态制定人地调控对策。

Research on Equilibrium State and Space Control of Man-land Relationship in Qinba Mountains on the Base of Supply and Demand Matching Model

Abstract：Quantitative research on the equilibrium state of man-land relationship in Qinba Mountains is conducted through constructing a supply and demand matching model, the interaction relationship and the influence mechanism between the spatial supply capacity and the spatial demand intensity are analyzed by means of OLS least squares method and GWR geographical weighting method, and hence space control model of pertinence and differentiation is put forward on these basis. The main conclusions include: (1) There is obvious spatial dislocation of supply and demand in Qinba Mountains, the supply capacity is high in the middle and low in outskirts. The supply index of districts and counties in the middle with high value is mostly between 0.72 and 1.16, while the supply index of districts and counties in outskirts is mostly less than 0.6. However, the demand intensity is basically opposite to supply capacity. The demand intensity of districts and counties in the middle areas is all less than 0.14, while the demand intensity of the peripheral and eastern areas is generally high, and the highest value mainly appears in districts and counties at the northern and eastern foothills of Qinling Mountains and at the middle reaches of Han River; the unmatched supply and demand is originated from ineffective space resource allocation separated by complex terrain. (2) There is an interaction between the two ends of man-land supply and demand, and there exists clear spatial differentiation in the interaction degree under the influence of terrain; (3) The equilibrium index of man-land relationship is generally low, and extremely uneven in distribution, which is clearly characterized by ‘being low in the middle and high in the periphery’. The quantity ratio of districts and counties that are of inefficient equilibrium, coordinated equilibrium, and spatial disequilibrium is about 11:3:2; (4) The research areas can be divided into four control subareas: development-controlled area, development-promoted area, development-optimized area and development-dispersed area, and the man-land regulatory countermeasures are formulated on the basis of the equilibrium state.