基于空间贝叶斯识别城市扩张与生态保护潜在的兼容区和冲突区——以鄱阳湖生态经济区为例

快速城市扩张在提高社会经济水平的同时,伴随着一系列的生态问题,如何合理协调城市扩张与生态保护之间的矛盾是当前我国新型城镇化建设中的一项重要任务。科学识别城市扩张与生态保护的冲突是其基础。以鄱阳湖生态经济区为研究区域,采用空间贝叶斯方法识别城市扩张与生态保护潜在的兼容区和冲突区。研究结果表明:(1)城市扩张适宜性区域分布较为集中,最适宜区域主要分布在南昌市主城区周边县域、余江县和乐平市,较适宜区域主要分布在新建区、瑞昌市、高安市和都昌县,较不适宜区域主要分布在武宁县以及鄱阳湖东岸,不适宜区域主要分布在鄱阳县、浮梁县与武宁县。(2)生态保护适宜性区域分布较为分散,最适宜区域主要分布在武宁县、瑞昌市、鄱阳县和浮梁县,较适宜区域主要分布在主城区东北部、东南部、余江县和湖口县,较不适宜区域主要分布较为分散,各区(市)县均有分布,不适宜区域主要分布在南昌市周边区域和鄱阳湖东岸。(3)综合分析城市扩张和生态保护适宜性评价结果得到的冲突区主要分布在瑞昌市、南昌县和新建区;兼容区中城市发展适宜性高的区域主要分布在南昌市的东南部以及永修县、星子县、余江县,生态保护适宜性高的区域主要分布在鄱阳湖东岸和武宁县;城市扩张和生态保护适宜性都较低的区域主要分布在鄱阳县、余干县、都昌县。研究结果可为土地利用规划与生态安全保护提供参考和借鉴。

Identification of Potential Compatibility and Conflict Areas of Urban Expansion and Ecological Protection Based on Spatial Bayesian Method:A Case of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone

Rapid urban expansion is accompanied by a series of ecological problems while improving the level of social economy. How to reasonably coordinated the contradiction between urban expansion and ecological protection is an important task in China’s new urbanization construction. Scientifically identifying the conflict between urban expansion and ecological protection is the basis.In this paper, the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone is used as a research area, and the spatial Bayesian method is used to identify potential compatible areas and conflict zones for urban expansion and ecological protection.The results show that: (1) the distribution of urban expansion suitability is relatively concentrated, the most suitable areas are mainly distributed in the surrounding counties of the main urban area, Yujiang County and Leping City, the suitable areas are mainly distributed in Xinjian District, Ruichang City, Gao’an City and Duchang County, the area is mainly distributed in Wuning County and the east bank of Poyang Lake, the unsuitable areas are mainly distributed in Shuyang County, Fuliang County and Wuning County; (2) the distribution of ecological protection suitability is relatively scattered, the most suitable areas are mainly distributed in Wuning County, Ruichang City, Shuyang County and Fuliang County, the suitable areas are mainly distributed in the northeast, southeast, Yujiang and Hukou counties of the main city, the main distribution of the less suitable areas is more scattered, and the districts (cities) and counties are distributed, the unsuitable areas are mainly distributed in the surrounding areas of Nanchang and the east bank of Poyang Lake; (3) the comprehensive analysis of urban expansion and ecological protection suitability evaluation results are mainly distributed in Ruichang City, Nanchang County and Xinjian District; the areas with high development suitability in the compatible areas are mainly distributed in the southeast of Nanchang City and Yongxiu County, Xingzi County and Yujiang County, the areas with high ecological protection suitability are mainly distributed in the east bank of Wuyang Lake and Wuning County; the areas with low urban expansion and ecological protection suitability are mainly distributed in Shuyang County, Yugan County and Duchang County.The research results could serve as a support for land use planning and ecological security protection.