1998~2016年中国大气PM2.5污染浓度空间格局演化 ——基于339个城市的实证研究

摘要： 近年来,与PM2.5相关的大气环境质量状况和改善问题一直是社会和公众关注的热点话题。通过选取中国339个地级市为研究对象，采用重心模型和局部空间自相关的研究方法，对中国339个城市大气PM2.5污染浓度空间格局演化进行实证分析。结果显示：（1）从重心分析来看，1998~2016年内的中国大气PM2.5污染浓度几何重心位于渭河平原附近以及中国东部和北方的大气PM2.5污染程度分别相对高于西部和南方地区。（2）从局部空间自相关分析来看，1998~2016年期间“高-高”类型的空间正相关的地区主要集中在华北地区、华中地区、华东地区、长江中下游沿岸城市及四川盆地；“低-低”类型的空间正相关的地区主要集中在西南和西北地区，也零星出现在东北和福建的部分城市中。最后对中国大气PM2.5污染空间格局进行初步成因探析。

Evolution of Spatial Pattern of Atmospheric PM2.5 Pollution Concentration in China from 1998 to 2016:#br# Based on An Empirical Study of 339 Cities

Abstract：In recent years, PM2.5 related air quality and improvement has been a hot topic of social and public concern.In this study, 339 prefecture-level cities in China were selected as the research objects, and the gravity center model and local spatial autocorrelation method were adopted to conduct an empirical analysis on the spatial pattern evolution of atmospheric PM2.5 pollution concentration in 339 cities in China.The results show that: (1) from the center of gravity analysis, the geometric center of gravity of atmospheric PM2.5 pollution concentration in China from 1998 to 2016 is located near Weihe Plain, and the degree of atmospheric PM2.5 pollution in eastern and northern China is relatively higher than that in western and southern regions respectively.(2) from the perspective of local spatial autocorrelation analysis, areas with positive spatial correlation of "high-high" type from 1998 to 2016 are mainly concentrated in North China, Central China, East China, cities along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Sichuan Basin.The area with positive spatial correlation of “low-low” type is mainly concentrated in southwest and northwest, and also appears sporadically in some cities of northeast and Fujian.Finally, the spatial pattern of atmospheric PM2.5 pollution in China is preliminarily analyzed.