基于ANN-CA模型的港口城市景观格局变化与预测研究——以胶州湾西岸区为例

研究港口城市景观格局变化规律对港口城市土地利用规划和产业布局具有借鉴和指导意义。以胶州湾西岸所在区域为例,基于ANN-CA模型和景观生态学理论,对2025年土地利用情况进行仿真预测,利用景观格局指数深入分析1995～2025年胶州湾西岸景观格局变化规律及其驱动因素。结果表明:胶州湾西岸耕地、草地和水域面积趋于减少,城镇、港区和临港用地面积所占比例大幅度增加至16.19%、7.72%和22.20%,非建设用地逐渐向港口和城市建设用地转化;景观结构总体趋于复杂化,前期景观的优势度下降,分离破碎化程度上升,景观丰富度和异质性增强,斑块分布更加均匀,后期景观优势度转而上升,分离破碎程度逐渐减小,景观多样性和均匀度趋于降低;社会经济和港口产业的迅猛发展是推动胶州湾西岸土地利用和景观格局变化的主要因素,随着港城矛盾逐渐凸显,港口和临港用地扩张趋于饱和。故提出加快区域内港口及其临港产业向外转移和提高土地利用集约程度的建议。

Research on Landscape Pattern Changes and Prediction in Port City Based on ANN-CA Model: A Case Study of the West Coast of Jiaozhou Bay

Research on the landscape pattern changes in port city have reference significance for port city land use planning and Industrial distribution. Taking the area of the west coast of Jiaozhou Bay as an example, based on the ANN CA model and landscape ecology theory, this study simulates and predicts the land use situation in 2025. Finally, it uses the landscape pattern index to deeply analyze the landscape pattern changes in the west coast of Jiaozhou Bay and its driving factor from 1995 to 2025. The results show that: the area of cultivated land, grassland and waters in the west coast of Jiaozhou Bay tends to decrease during this 30 year period. The proportion of urban, port and adjacent port area increased significantly to 16.19%, 7.72% and 22.20%, while non construction land is gradually transformed into port and urban construction land. Landscape structure tends to be complex. In the early stage, landscape dominance gradually disappears. Degree of fragmentation, landscape richness and heterogeneity increases. patch tend to be distributed. In the later period, landscape dominance has turned up. Degree of fragmentation, landscape diversity and uniformity tend to decrease. The rapid development of social economy and port industry is the main factor driving land use and landscape pattern change in the west coast of Jiaozhou Bay. With the contradiction between the port and the city has become more prominent, the expansion of the port and adjacent port land tend to be saturated. Therefore, this study puts forward suggestions to speed up the outward transfer of ports and their adjacent industries and to improve the degree of land use intensive.