少数民族贫困地区生态文明建设路径选择及优化

摘 要：少数民族贫困地区由于其地理条件、人文环境和经济发展等因素制约，生态文明建设更为艰巨。从人口、社会、经济、资源、环境5个子系统构建该地区生态文明建设系统动力学模型，通过调节14个控制变量设计5条路径，模拟2018~2030年生态文明建设的演变趋势。结果表明：（1）协调发展路径更能促进生态文明建设。但该路径模拟结果显示2020年后资源供需平衡指数与生态环境质量下降，利用耦合协调模型检验得出该路径2018~2030年间人类与自然系统未达到真正协调，需进一步优化路径；（2）根据该地区经济发展与资源供需间的矛盾，设计了以加快资源开发为主的优化路径Ⅰ和在放缓经济增长速度的同时加大资源开发力度的优化路径Ⅱ，其中优化路径Ⅱ耦合度较高，能够更好地帮助该地区摆脱经济发展与内外部资源支撑不足的困境，故将其确定为有效路径。研究发现，该地区资源开发、环境保护任务艰巨，在完成脱贫任务的同时，需要适当调整经济增长速度保证与其资源环境间的协调发展。我们认为提升脱贫的内生动力、发展多元经济、提高资源利用率、增强生态环境保护是今后工作的重点。

Path Choice and Optimization of Ecological Civilization Construction in Poverty Stricken Minority Areas

Abstract：The construction of ecological civilization in poverty stricken minority areas of ethnic minorities is more arduous because of its geographical conditions, human environment, economic development and other factors. This study constructed the dynamic model of ecological civilization construction system in these areas from the five sub-systems of population, society, economy, resources and environment. Then the study designed five paths by adjusting 14 control variables and simulate the evolution trend of ecological civilization construction from 2018 to 2030. The results shown: (1) Coordinated development path can promote the construction of ecological civilization best. However, the simulation results of this path show that the balance index of resource supply and demand and the quality of ecological environment will decline from 2020. This study used the coupling coordination model test to conclude that the path had not achieved real coordination between human and natural systems during 2018-2030, and further optimization of the path is needed; (2) According to the region economy development and the contradiction between resource supply and demand, the study designed optimization path Ⅰmainly to accelerate the development of resources mainly, and optimization path Ⅱslowing economic growth at the same time increase the intensity of resource development. And the optimization path Ⅱ was considered as the effective path due to its great coupling coordination effect, and It can help the region get rid of the dilemma of insufficient economic development and internal and external resources. Based on the research findings, the task of resource exploitation and environmental protection in this region is arduous. While fulfilling the task of poverty alleviation, it is necessary to adjust the rate of economic growth to ensure coordinated development with its resources and environment. And the study puts forward that the key points of the future work are to enhance the endogenous power of poverty alleviation, develop diversified economy, improve the utilization rate of resources and strengthen the protection of ecological environment.