中国稀有轻金属关键性动态评估——以锂和铍为例

经济新常态下,战略性新兴产业成为拉动经济发展的新动能,稀有轻金属为提高我国战略性新兴产业国际地位和水平提供了核心竞争力。选取两种主要稀有轻金属锂和铍,从供应风险、环境风险、经济风险三个维度对稀有轻金属在2009～2016年期间进行关键性评估。研究结果表明:(1)锂在供应风险维度呈现相对稳定低风险,环境风险维度波动变化处于高风险水平,经济风险在2013～2015年波动剧烈风险水平高;(2)铍相较锂而言在供应风险、环境风险和经济风险均呈现高风险水平。总体而言,锂和铍的整体风险水平达到关键性判定基准值,应该充分重视稀有轻金属关键性动态评估机制构建。

Dynamic Criticality Assessment of Rare Light Metals in China:Case Study of Lithium and Beryllium

Abstract：Strategic emerging industries have become the driving force for economic growth with the background of New Normal of China’s economy, while rare light metals have provided core competitiveness for improving the international status and level of strategic emerging industries. In this paper, we learn from the European Union criticality methodology to assess criticality of lithium and beryllium between 2009 and 2016 from three assessment components：supply risk, environment risk and economic risk. The results show that: （1)Lithium presents a relatively low level in the supply risk, a high risk level in the environmental risk, and a higher level in the economic risk with drastic fluctuation during the period 2013-2015, having a high risk.(2）Compared with lithium, beryllium is at a higher risk level in the three risk dimensions. In general, the critical assessment results of lithium and beryllium have reached the critical benchmark value, and we should pay adequate attention to the construction of dynamic criticality assessment mechanism.