城市建设用地规模的经济增长效应——基于非线性STR模型的实证

以中国1982～2016年数据为研究样本,利用非线性平滑转换回归模型探讨了城市建设用地规模对经济增长的影响效应。结果表明:(1)中国城市建设用地规模与经济增长之间存在明显的非线性特征,以滞后两阶的经济增长作为转换变量建立非单调类转换函数模型最为恰当;(2)当转换变量介于临界值30 542.404 43亿元和37 595.594 26亿元之间时,转换函数为0,模型完全表现为线性形式,当转换变量等于临界值时,转换函数为0.5,城市建设用地规模与经济增长的关系从线性机制转换为非线性机制的速度一般;(3)当转换变量小于30 542.404 43亿元或者大于37 595.594 26亿元时,转换函数值迅速向1转换,城市建设用地规模对经济增长的非线性影响就会显现,此时城市建设用地规模变动1%,将会引起当期经济增长1.829 03%的变动。

Economic Growth Effect of Urban Construction Land Scale: Empirical Analysis of Nonlinear Smooth Transition Regression Model

Abstract：This paper discussed the effect of urban construction land scale on economic growth based on the nonlinear Smooth Transition Regression Model and data of China from 1982 to 2016. The results showed that: (1) There is an obvious nonlinear feature between China’s urban construction land scale and economic growth. It is most appropriate to establish a non-monotonic transfer function model by using two-order economic growth as a transition variable. (2) When the transition variable is between the critical value of 30 542.404 billion yuan and 375 595.954 billion yuan, the transfer function is 0 and the model is completely linear. When the transition variable is equal to the critical value, the transfer function is 0.5 and the relationship between the scale of urban construction land and economic growth is converted from a linear mechanism to a nonlinear mechanism. (3) When the transition variable is less than 30 542.404 billion yuan or more than 37 595.594 26 billion yuan, the value of transition function is rapidly converted to 1, and the nonlinear impact of urban construction land scale on economic growth will appear. At this time, the scale of urban construction land changes by 1%, which will cause current economic growth of 1.829 03%.