劳动力老龄化对农户粮食绿色生产行为的影响研究——基于长江流域六省农户的调查

基于2017年对四川省、湖北省、湖南省、江西省、安徽省、江苏省等6个长江流域粮食主产省份1 027户农户的调查数据,利用结构方程模型(SEM)以及自助抽样(Bootstrapping)方法,对劳动力老龄化影响农户粮食绿色生产行为的作用机制及其效应进行了实证检验。结果表明:(1)劳动力老龄化通过削弱吸收能力的机制抑制了农户粮食绿色生产行为,其中介效应显著为负(路径系数为-0.126)。(2)劳动力老龄化通过要素替代与决策依赖机制显著促进了农户的粮食绿色生产行为,且这种积极影响超过了吸收能力机制的不利影响,使得劳动力老龄化对农户粮食绿色生产行为影响的总间接效应为正(0.176)。(3)总体而言,劳动力老龄化对农户粮食绿色生产行为具有显著的不利影响,因为其直接效应显著为负(-0.328),且大于间接效应。据此,研究认为劳动力老龄化对于粮食生产绿色转型而言不仅是挑战,同时也存在机遇。

How Can the Aging of Agricultural Labor Affect Green Grain Production: Based on the Survey of Farmers in Six Provinces Along the Yangtze River

Abstract：This paper based on a rural survey in the Yangtze River Basin including 1 027 farm households in Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Anhui and Jiangsu Provinces, this paper uses Structural Equation Model (SEM) and Bootstrapping methods to analyze the mechanism and effects of aging exerts on green grain production. The findings are as follows. First, the aging of labor force is found to have negative influence on green grain production by the mediating mechanism of absorption capacity. Second, the mediating effects of factor substitution and decision dependence are significantly positive and higher than that of absorption capacity. Therefore, the total indirect effect of aging of agricultural labor exert on green grain production is positive. Third, the total effect of the aging of agricultural labor on green grain production is negative and significant since the direct effect is negative and higher than the indirect effect. Accordingly, the study considers that the aging of labor force is not only a challenge, but also an opportunity for the green transformation of grain production.