基于拓展敏感性方法和ABCD模型的流域枯季径流归因分析

提出一种拓展径流敏感性分析方法,进行季尺度气候变化和人类活动对径流变化影响的定量评价。以径流变化二阶泰勒展开式中的混合偏导项作为气候变化与人类活动耦合作用的度量,从而分离出气候变化、人类活动及两者间耦合作用对径流影响的程度,并采用包含融雪模块的ABCD模型,计算土壤蓄水量和地下水储量变化量。以拉萨河为研究实例,结果表明:近60年来,气候变化是导致拉萨河枯季径流增加的主导因素,其次是人类活动和耦合作用项;气候变化导致枯季径流增加,人类活动及耦合作用项引起枯季径流不同程度的减少。

Dry Season Runoff Attribution in Basin Based on Extended Hydrological Sensitivity Method and ABCD Model

Abstract：In this study, an extended hydrological sensitivity method was proposed to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on seasonal river runoff. The second-order mixed partial derivate, which was obtained based on the Taylor's expansion of runoff change, was taken to be the magnitude of the interaction impact between climate change and human activities. We applied the equation to separate the extent of the impact of climate change, human activities and their interactions on dry season runoff. Moreover, an ABCD model including snowmelt module was used to calculate the change of the soil water storage and the groundwater storage. By taking the Lhasa River Basin as a case study, it was found that the runoff in the dry season exhibited a less significant upward in the last 60 years. Climate change, which causes an increase in the dry season runoff, is the dominant factor leading to the increase of runoff, followed by human activities and their interaction effects which cause varying degrees of decreases.